How it works
A long-term care cost projection converts tomorrow's care bill into numbers you can plan against today. Care is priced monthly and inflates relentlessly — medical and custodial costs historically run hotter than headline CPI — so the calculator grows your chosen setting's current rate from now until care begins, then compounds it again through every year of care. Planning horizons matter as much as rates: the national average is around three years of care, women average longer, and couples face the possibility of sequential claims. Three outputs anchor the plan: the monthly cost on the day care starts, which shocks people because it is several multiples of today's rate; the total nominal cost across the full care period; and the same total expressed in today's prices, which separates real growth from inflation noise. Against a dedicated fund growing at your portfolio return, the projection exposes the shortfall — money that must come from somewhere else: insurance begun while healthy, home equity, or a deliberate spend-down plan. Medicare's exclusion is the fact that makes all of this urgent: it pays short skilled episodes after hospitalization, not the custodial years, so the largest controllable expense of late retirement arrives entirely unbudgeted unless you act decades earlier.
Formula
total = sum of 12 x monthly cost x (1 + inflation)^(years to start + care year - 1)
Tips
- Price the setting you would actually choose, not the cheapest one — families upgrade under stress.
- Stress the care-years input upward for women and for couples planning sequentially.
- Compare the shortfall against LTC insurance quotes bought at your current age — pricing locks in while you're healthy.
- Medicare pays rehab episodes, never custodial care; build the plan as if it doesn't exist.
- Re-run every few years: care inflation outruns CPI, and yesterday's projection ages fast.
Frequently asked questions
- How much does long-term care cost per month?
- 2026 US medians run near $6,300 for a home health aide, $5,900 for assisted living and $11,000-plus for a private nursing-home room, varying widely by state. Memory-care wings typically add 20-30% over base assisted living.
- How many years does the average person need long-term care?
- About three years overall — men nearer two and a half, women nearly four. Roughly one in five needs more than five years, which is why planners stress-test the horizon rather than trusting the average.
- Does Medicare pay for long-term care?
- No. Medicare covers only short skilled-nursing episodes following a hospitalization and pays nothing for custodial care — help with bathing, dressing and daily living. Medicaid does, but only after you have spent down assets to qualification levels.
- Is long-term care insurance worth buying?
- It is worth pricing while healthy, usually between ages 55 and 65, when underwriting is favorable. Whether it beats self-funding depends on premium, inflation rider and family longevity history — compare the quoted premium against this projection's shortfall to decide.
- What is a hybrid life and long-term care policy?
- Life insurance with an accelerated death benefit for chronic illness: if care is needed the death advance pays for it, and if never needed, heirs receive the full death benefit. It trades higher upfront cost for the 'use it or lose it' objection going away.