How it works
This calculator frames the college-or-trade-school decision as a ten-year net-earnings race, and the framing itself is the first thing to understand. It takes the total cost of each path and the starting salary each path leads to, multiplies the salary by the number of years in that path during which you are actually earning, and subtracts the cost. The college side is hard-coded to four years regardless of your inputs — the cost field is even labelled "College total cost (4 years)" and there is no separate college-duration entry — so a college graduate earns for 10 minus 4 = 6 years inside the window. The trade side uses the duration you enter: an 18-month program earns for 10 minus 1.5 = 8.5 years. What the tool measures, then, is not lifetime wealth but the gap between the two paths over the first ten years counted from today, with the years spent training treated as zero earnings. Worked example on the defaults, which are a $100,000 college cost, a $55,000 college starting salary, a $15,000 trade cost, a $45,000 trade starting salary and an 18-month trade program. College 10-year net = $55,000 × 6 − $100,000 = $230,000. Trade 10-year net = $45,000 × 8.5 − $15,000 = $382,500 − $15,000 = $367,500. The tool therefore flags trade school as the better choice over the first decade, by $137,500, because it starts earning 2.5 years sooner and costs far less to enter. Two honest limits stop this being the whole answer. First, it applies the starting salary to every one of the working years, so it captures no raises. In practice a degree’s salary grows faster than a trade’s, and over a 30- or 40-year career many degrees overtake the trade on total earnings even after the early gap. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook puts 2023 medians at about $60,000 for electricians and for plumbers and pipefitters, and about $49,000 for welders, with experienced trades commonly above $70,000 — but it also lists many bachelor’s-required fields well above that, and the degree keeps management and licensed-profession doors open that a trade may not. Second, the college cost is a sticker figure; borrowed, it accrues interest on top, and the tool does not add that. The trade path is cheaper to finance but is not free of debt either. The calculator is therefore best read as "which path gets me to positive net cash sooner," not "which path makes me the most money over a lifetime." If your field pays well and you can keep the loan small, the college column catches up after year ten; if your field is median and the debt is large, the trade column stays ahead for a long time. The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook at bls.gov/ooh is the place to check the actual medians and projected growth for the specific career before trusting either number here.
Formula
College years in school = 4 (hard-coded; there is no college-duration input)
Trade years in school = trade duration (months) ÷ 12
Compare window = 10 years, counted from today
College 10-yr net = college salary × (10 − 4) − college cost
Trade 10-yr net = trade salary × (10 − trade years) − trade cost
better choice = the path with the higher 10-year net
Worked example — $100k college @ $55k, $15k trade @ $45k, 18-mo program
College: 10 − 4 = 6 earning yrs → 55,000 × 6 − 100,000 = $230,000
Trade: 10 − 1.5 = 8.5 earning yrs → 45,000 × 8.5 − 15,000 = $367,500
Trade wins the 10-yr window by $137,500
Sensitivity (trade side)
36-month program → 10 − 3 = 7 earning yrs → net $285,000 (still ahead)
trade salary $70k, 12-mo → 10 − 1 = 9 earning yrs → net $615,000 (far ahead)
Tips
- Read the output as "who reaches positive net cash first," not "who earns the most over a life." The 10-year window counts training years as zero income, so it structurally favours the shorter, cheaper path.
- Check the median pay and projected growth for the actual career, not the category, before deciding. The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook is the reference; electricians, plumbers and welders sit near $50k–$70k, but so do many non-STEM degrees, and the degree buys access to licensed and management roles.
- Model the college cost as borrowed. The $100,000 sticker in the default becomes $120,000–$160,000 once loan interest is included, and that erodes the degree’s catch-up year.
- If you cannot choose, sequence it: start the trade, earn, then fund the degree part-time. The trade income pays the tuition that the degree would otherwise have borrowed against.
Frequently asked questions
- Why does the tool say trade school wins when college graduates earn more?
- Because the tool does not compare lifetime pay. It compares net earnings over the first ten years from today, during which the college graduate spends four years in class earning nothing and the trade graduate spends 1.5 years and then works the whole window. With the default numbers that gives trade school a $137,500 lead by year ten even though the college starting salary is higher. The tool also applies the starting salary with no raises, so it never captures the degree’s faster salary growth over a 30- or 40-year career. It is a "time-to-positive-cash" measure, not a lifetime-wealth measure.
- Does the calculator include student loan interest?
- No. The college cost is the sticker price, and the trade cost is the sticker price; neither is increased by the interest a loan would add. On the college side that matters a lot — $100,000 borrowed at roughly 7% for ten years adds tens of thousands in interest on top of the principal, which the tool does not show. Treat the college number as optimistic unless you are paying cash or with a small, subsidised loan, and add a realistic interest figure yourself before leaning on the comparison.
- Is a ten-year window fair, given people work thirty or forty years?
- It is a deliberate choice, not an oversight: the tool is built to answer "which path clears its cost sooner," and that question is naturally short-horizon. Over a 40-year career the picture changes because degree salaries rise faster than trade salaries and because the degree keeps higher-paying doors open. The right way to use the tool is to accept its 10-year verdict as the early-years answer, then ask separately whether your specific degree’s long-run premium outweighs the four years of missed earnings and the debt. For engineering, computing or healthcare the long run usually wins; for many other majors it does not.
- Which trades actually pay as much as a degree?
- Using 2023 Bureau of Labor Statistics medians, electricians are about $60,000, plumbers and pipefitters about $60,000, and welders about $49,000, with experienced and licensed tradespeople commonly above $70,000 — comparable to the starting salary of many four-year degrees and ahead of a fair number of them. The catch is that these are medians across the whole country and across experience levels, and they do not include the degree’s ceiling or its access to management pay. The Occupational Outlook Handbook at bls.gov/ooh is the source for the specific trade and region you are considering.
- Can I do both — finish a trade, then go to college?
- Yes, and it is often the most robust path. A trade gets you earning and out of debt quickly; the income then funds the degree part-time, so the degree no longer has to be borrowed against. The tool cannot model this directly because it compares two fixed paths, but the sequence beats either standalone path for someone who wants both the early cash and the later option value. The trade income also de-risks the degree — if you stop part-way, you still have a credential that pays.
- What exactly does "better financial choice" measure?
- It measures which path has the higher net earnings over the 10-year window used by the tool — salary earned during the working portion of those ten years, minus the cost of the education, with training years counted as zero. It does not include raises, loan interest, benefits, job satisfaction, the option value of a degree, or anything beyond years 0–10. If the trade side wins, it means the trade reaches positive net cash sooner; if the college side wins, it means the degree’s higher salary has already overtaken the earlier miss in the time the tool looks at, which is rare at the default numbers but happens once the trade duration is long or its salary is low.